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Tue, Oct. 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Delaware30
Middle Tennessee33
MISSED
SharpTake projected Delaware at 63%. Middle Tennessee won.
ProjectedDelaware by 5.0
ActualMiddle Tennessee by 3
Difference8.0 pts
Market spreadDelaware -1.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Delaware -1.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Delaware 63%Middle Tennessee 37%
SharpTake projects Delaware to win.
DelawareProjected winner
63%Win probability
Delaware by 5.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Delaware pass game
EDGE
Delaware offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Delaware gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Delaware.
Passing Success Rate · 43.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Middle Tennessee creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Delaware allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Middle Tennessee.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.227Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.423Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Delaware offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Delaware gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Delaware position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Middle Tennessee position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 12, 2026 · 3:17 AM ET