SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Western KentuckyatSam Houston

Wed, Oct. 14 · 8:00 PM ET · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium

Western Kentucky16
Sam Houston3
MISSED

SharpTake projected Sam Houston at 51%. Western Kentucky won.

ProjectedSam Houston by 0.5
ActualWestern Kentucky by 13
Difference13.5 pts
Market spreadWestern Kentucky -1.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Sam Houston +1.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Sam Houston to win.

Sam HoustonProjected winner
51%Win probability
Sam Houston by 0.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Sam Houston finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
Sam Houston offenseWestern Kentucky defense

Sam Houston scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.72 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Sam Houston staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Sam Houston offenseWestern Kentucky defense

Sam Houston gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.

Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Sam Houston pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Sam Houston offenseWestern Kentucky defense

Sam Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.

Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Western Kentucky team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Sam Houston team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Western Kentucky position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Sam Houston position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 14, 2026 · 2:04 AM ET

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