SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

Missouri StateatDelaware

Tue, Oct. 20 · 7:00 PM ET · Delaware Stadium

Missouri State38
Delaware61
CALLED

SharpTake projected Delaware at 66%. Delaware won.

ProjectedDelaware by 6.0
ActualDelaware by 23
Difference17.0 pts
Market spreadDelaware -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Delaware -3

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Delaware to win.

DelawareProjected winner
66%Win probability
Delaware by 6.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Missouri State explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Missouri State offenseDelaware defense

Missouri State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri State.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.489Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.423Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Missouri State run game

EDGE
Missouri State offenseDelaware defense

Missouri State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Delaware.

Rushing Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Delaware disruption vs Missouri State

EDGE
Missouri State disruption allowedDelaware disruption created

Missouri State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Delaware creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Delaware.

Havoc Rate allowed · 24.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Missouri State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Delaware team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Missouri State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Delaware position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 18, 2026 · 12:29 PM ET

← Back to forecast board Recent results