Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Wed, Oct. 21 · 8:00 PM ET · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
New Mexico State30
Sam Houston24
CALLED
SharpTake projected New Mexico State at 54%. New Mexico State won.
ProjectedNew Mexico State by 1.5
ActualNew Mexico State by 6
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadNew Mexico State -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Sam Houston +3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
New Mexico State 54%Sam Houston 46%
SharpTake projects New Mexico State to win.
New Mexico StateProjected winner
54%Win probability
New Mexico State by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Sam Houston finishing drives
CLEAR EDGE
Sam Houston offenseNew Mexico State defense
Sam Houston scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.29 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Sam Houston staying on schedule
EDGE
Sam Houston offenseNew Mexico State defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors New Mexico State.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
New Mexico State pass game
EDGE
New Mexico State offenseSam Houston defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Sam Houston allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico State.
Passing Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
New Mexico State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Sam Houston position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 21, 2026 · 1:58 AM ET