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Tue, Oct. 27 · 7:00 PM ET · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Delaware35
Western Kentucky21
MISSED
SharpTake projected Western Kentucky at 53%. Delaware won.
ProjectedWestern Kentucky by 1.0
ActualDelaware by 14
Difference15.0 pts
Market spreadWestern Kentucky -2
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Delaware +2
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Delaware 47%Western Kentucky 53%
SharpTake projects Western Kentucky to win.
Western KentuckyProjected winner
53%Win probability
Western Kentucky by 1.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Western Kentucky finishing drives
EDGE
Western Kentucky offenseDelaware defense
Western Kentucky scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.21 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.04 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Delaware offenseWestern Kentucky defense
Delaware gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Western Kentucky offenseDelaware defense
Western Kentucky gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Delaware allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Delaware position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Western Kentucky position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 26, 2026 · 7:06 PM ET