Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
SharpTake projected Missouri State at 59%. Missouri State won.
ProjectedMissouri State by 3.0
ActualMissouri State by 21
Difference18.0 pts
Market spreadMissouri State -6
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Sam Houston +6
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Sam Houston 41%Missouri State 59%
SharpTake projects Missouri State to win.
Missouri StateProjected winner
59%Win probability
Missouri State by 3.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Sam Houston staying on schedule
EDGE
Sam Houston offenseMissouri State defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Missouri State pass game
EDGE
Missouri State offenseSam Houston defense
Missouri State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Sam Houston allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Passing Success Rate · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Missouri State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Sam Houston allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.489Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.270Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Sam Houston position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Missouri State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 26, 2026 · 7:06 PM ET