Overall team quality
Strong South Alabama advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
UL MonroeatSouth Alabama
UL Monroe35
South Alabama52
CALLED
SharpTake projected South Alabama at 81%. South Alabama won.
ProjectedSouth Alabama by 14.0
ActualSouth Alabama by 17
Difference3.0 pts
Market spreadSouth Alabama -13.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: South Alabama -13.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UL Monroe 19%South Alabama 81%
SharpTake projects South Alabama to win.
South AlabamaProjected winner
81%Win probability
South Alabama by 14.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans South Alabama
South Alabama's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors South Alabama. South Alabama also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and down-to-down efficiency, while UL Monroe's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
UL Monroe offset
Current season's scoring performance
South Alabama advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight South Alabama advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UL Monroe explosive plays
EDGEUL Monroe offenseSouth Alabama defense
UL Monroe creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while South Alabama allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors UL Monroe.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.368Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.259Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
South Alabama disruption vs UL Monroe
EDGEUL Monroe disruption allowedSouth Alabama disruption created
UL Monroe avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while South Alabama creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors South Alabama.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEUL Monroe offenseSouth Alabama defense
UL Monroe gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while South Alabama allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UL Monroe team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
South Alabama team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.