Overall team quality
Strong Troy advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Southern MissatTroy
Southern Miss34
Troy55
CALLED
SharpTake projected Troy at 74%. Troy won.
ProjectedTroy by 10.0
ActualTroy by 21
Difference11.0 pts
Market spreadTroy -10
Vs spreadNO EDGESharpTake Pick: No edge
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Southern Miss 26%Troy 74%
SharpTake projects Troy to win.
TroyProjected winner
74%Win probability
Troy by 10.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Troy
Troy's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Troy. Troy also has the edge in recent scoring performance, while Southern Miss's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Southern Miss offset
Recent scoring performance
Slight Troy advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Southern Miss disruption vs Troy
CLEAR EDGETroy disruption allowedSouthern Miss disruption created
Troy avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Southern Miss.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGETroy offenseSouthern Miss defense
Troy gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGETroy offenseSouthern Miss defense
Troy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Southern Miss team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Troy team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.