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SharpTake projected Louisiana Tech at 87%. Louisiana Tech won.
ProjectedLouisiana Tech by 18.0
ActualLouisiana Tech by 24
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadLouisiana Tech -14.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Louisiana Tech -14.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Louisiana Tech 87%UL Monroe 13%
SharpTake projects Louisiana Tech to win.
Louisiana TechProjected winner
87%Win probability
Louisiana Tech by 18.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisiana Tech disruption vs UL Monroe
CLEAR EDGE
UL Monroe disruption allowedLouisiana Tech disruption created
UL Monroe avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana Tech creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
UL Monroe run game
CLEAR EDGE
UL Monroe offenseLouisiana Tech defense
UL Monroe gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana Tech allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana Tech.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
UL Monroe creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana Tech allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UL Monroe.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.368Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.348Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Louisiana Tech position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.UL Monroe position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET