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Tue, Oct. 20 · 7:30 PM ET · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
South Alabama13
Marshall20
MISSED
SharpTake projected South Alabama at 62%. Marshall won.
ProjectedSouth Alabama by 4.5
ActualMarshall by 7
Difference11.5 pts
Market spreadSouth Alabama -2
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: South Alabama -2
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
South Alabama 62%Marshall 38%
SharpTake projects South Alabama to win.
South AlabamaProjected winner
62%Win probability
South Alabama by 4.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
South Alabama run game
EDGE
South Alabama offenseMarshall defense
South Alabama gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Marshall allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Marshall.
Rushing Success Rate · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
South Alabama creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Marshall allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Alabama.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.201Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.382Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Marshall finishing drives
EDGE
Marshall offenseSouth Alabama defense
Marshall scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while South Alabama allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Marshall.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.89 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.35 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
South Alabama position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Marshall position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 18, 2026 · 12:29 PM ET