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SharpTake projected Louisiana Tech at 75%. Louisiana Tech won.
ProjectedLouisiana Tech by 10.5
ActualLouisiana Tech by 26
Difference15.5 pts
Market spreadLouisiana Tech -13.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Old Dominion +13.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Old Dominion 25%Louisiana Tech 75%
SharpTake projects Louisiana Tech to win.
Louisiana TechProjected winner
75%Win probability
Louisiana Tech by 10.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisiana Tech pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Louisiana Tech offenseOld Dominion defense
Louisiana Tech gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Old Dominion allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Passing Success Rate · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Louisiana Tech creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Old Dominion allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.227Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.076Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Louisiana Tech disruption vs Old Dominion
EDGE
Old Dominion disruption allowedLouisiana Tech disruption created
Old Dominion avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisiana Tech creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Old Dominion position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Louisiana Tech position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET