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Sat, Oct. 24 · 4:00 PM ET · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
UL Monroe21
Troy14
MISSED
SharpTake projected Troy at 87%. UL Monroe won.
ProjectedTroy by 17.5
ActualUL Monroe by 7
Difference24.5 pts
Market spreadTroy -13.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Troy -13.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UL Monroe 13%Troy 87%
SharpTake projects Troy to win.
TroyProjected winner
87%Win probability
Troy by 17.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UL Monroe run game
EDGE
UL Monroe offenseTroy defense
UL Monroe gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Troy allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Troy.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
UL Monroe creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Troy allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors UL Monroe.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.368Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.268Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Troy disruption vs UL Monroe
EDGE
UL Monroe disruption allowedTroy disruption created
UL Monroe avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Troy creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Troy.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
UL Monroe position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Troy position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET