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These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Southern Miss disruption vs UL Monroe
CLEAR EDGE
UL Monroe disruption allowedSouthern Miss disruption created
UL Monroe avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Southern Miss.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
UL Monroe run game
EDGE
UL Monroe offenseSouthern Miss defense
UL Monroe gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Southern Miss.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
UL Monroe creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors UL Monroe.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.368Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.215Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Southern Miss position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.UL Monroe position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET